2025 Oscars Bets

Movies

Mar 1

Every year, I watch all the best picture nominees and as many other category nominees as possible prior to the Academy Awards. In other words, I watch more Oscar-nominated films than the Academy voters.

I also make bets on the Oscars every year. Last year I was 20/22 on my picks with seven plus-odds picks (upsets). Let’s just say… I made money. And I’d like to help you make money. So here are my 2025 picks across 20 different awards categories.

Disclaimer

These are picks not predictions. Predictions are who I think will win. At times, I will make a pick on a plus-odds nominee because I feel their probability of winning is higher than the books are giving it and that’s an opportunity to make money.

Also, these are all my own thoughts, and how I am going to bet. How you bet is your choice, whether you follow my recommendations or not, and any losses incurred based on my picks are your own responsibility. Alright, let’s get into it.

Best Picture

Anora (-200)

Conclave (+225)

The Brutalist (+600)

A Complete Unknown (+3500)

Wicked (+5000)

Emilia Perez (+6500)

I'm Still Here (+10000

The Substance (+8000)

Nickel Boys (+10000)

Dune: Part Two (+10000)

My pick: Anora (-200)

Starting out with the big one. This entire awards season is difficult. The front-runner is not far and away in the lead like it has the past two years with Oppenheimer (2024) and Everything Everywhere All at Once (2023). It’s close, with the top films, directors, and actors trading blows throughout awards season.

My pick here is Anora. Why? It has the strongest resume during awards season, and I think it’s the best film. I think it also benefits from the ranked voting of the Academy. It’s likeable, and so even if it’s not everyone’s top pick, it’s unlikely to fall down the board like some of the other contenders. If the signs were better for The Brutalist, I’d consider it at a plus-odds choice, but with Conclave being the one to gain steam as a challenger, I just don’t see it. I loved Conclave, but I don’t think it has the depth to pick off the top spot. So if you really want to take a swing here, go with The Brutalist at +600 and really try to rake it in, but I’m going with Anora — a film I felt good enough to bet on at +165 when odds first dropped in December.

Best Director

Sean Baker (Anora) (-175)

Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) (+135)

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) (+2000)

James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) (+2500)

Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) (+2500)

My pick: Sean Baker (-175)

I’ve been riding Anora and Baker since the beginning. I’m not going to stop now. Corbet is certainly worth your money if you want to play the odds. But I think even at -175 Baker is good value here.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) (-250)

Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) (+150)

Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) (+1800)

Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) (+5000)

Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) (+3500)

My pick: Timothée Chalamet (+150)

This is the most exciting category in my opinion. It is truly so intriguing to see who comes out on top. I thought Brody was fantastic as Lászlo Tóth, delivering a classic Best Actor performance worthy of the award. However, Chalamet’s Bob Dylan was more impressive to me, and their Oscars campaigns could not have gone in more opposite directions. Chalamets was impressive, fun, and exciting, and Brody’s was filled with AI-related doubt cast upon his performance.

It’s important to mention, I think Brody will win (and it will have been a deserved win). But I think it’s closer to a 51-49% chance than the probabilities the odds dictate. Chalamet is worth the odds on this one.

Best Actress

Demi Moore (The Substance) (-250)

Mikey Madison (Anora) (+175)

Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) (+1100)

Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) (+5000)

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) (+3500)

My pick: Fernanda Torres (+1100)

I am taking a huge risk here. Awards season indicates it’s going to be Moore or Madison here, and probably Moore. However, there’s always a true shocker. This is where I call my shot.

Torres gave the most traditional Academy Award-winning performance in I’m Still Here. She was emotional, strong, and powerful. Horror often struggles and Madison is quite young. At +1100 I find Torres so enticing. I also like Madison as a play here to work the odds, but I’m riding with Torres for the grand slam bet.

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) (-3500)

Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) (+1100)

Yura Borisov (Anora) (+1800)

Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) (+2000)

Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) (+2000)

My pick: Kieran Culkin (-3500)

Don’t waste your time with anyone else. It’s not much, but it’ll hit.

Best Supporting Actress

Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) (-2500)

Ariana Grande (Wicked) (+800)

Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) (+1400)

Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) (+2000)

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) (+2500)

My pick: Zoe Saldaña (-2500)

Same thing as above. She’s going to take it. It’s probably foolish to bet anyone else. But… if I were to take a flyer here? Barbaro at (+2500). I don’t think she has the true worst probability to win this, likely ahead of Grande and Rossellini. Barbaro was fantastic and learned to sing for this role. If Chalamet can win, so can she.

Best Animated Feature Film

The Wild Robot (-340)

Flow (+225)

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (+1600)

Inside Out 2 (+2000)

Memoir of a Snail (+3500)

My pick: Flow (+225)

It’s closer than these odds show. The Wild Robot is chalk, but Flow is right on its tail. A +225 line implies otherwise, but don’t be fooled. Flow has been lauded for its unique, fresh approach to an animated movie, and I think it has real legs here. I predicted The Boy and the Heron last year when it was an underdog in this category, and it paid off — going to do the same this year.

Best International Feature

Emilia Perez (-140)

I'm Still Here (+110)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (+1400)

Flow (+2500)

The Girl with the Needle (+4000)

My pick: I’m Still Here (+110)

I love being able to pick against the worst Oscar movie I’ve ever seen at plus-odds. Emilia Pérez is a joke, an insult. It has, rightfully, been lampooned throughout awards season. I’m Still Here, on the other hand, is excellent. Frankly, I think it should be getting more best picture buzz than it has. I think people are underrating this film’s win probability and how it will stick with the Academy, picking up steam at the right time.

Best Documentary Feature Film

No Other Land (-165)

Porcelain War (+150)

Sugarcane (+700)

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (+1600)

Black Box Diaries (+2000)

My pick: Porcelain War (+150)

I admittedly have not seen any of these films. But No Other Land is about Palestine, and Porcelain War is about Ukraine. I expect the Academy to lean on the side of voting for Ukraine over Palestine to platform. From what I’ve read, both are excellent films, and so with Porcelain War at +150 odds, I’m willing to bet with the non–tangible influences at play.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora (-250)

The Substance (+300)

A Real Pain (+500)

The Brutalist (+1400)

September 5 (+3500)

My pick: Anora (-250)

I don’t like betting this category, but I want to do a pick in it because it’s an important one. I don’t think Anora is good value at -250, but it’s the only one worth betting.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave (-1000)

Nickel Boys (+750)

Emilia Perez (+1000)

A Complete Unknown (+2000)

Sing Sing (+2200)

My pick: Conclave (-1000)

I just think it’s going to be Conclave. Not much to it. I don’t think the others are worth betting.

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist (-340)

Nosferatu (+350)

Dune Part Two (+550)

Maria (+2000)

Emilia Perez (+6500)

My pick: The Brutalist (-340)

The real answer is Nickel Boys, but somehow it isn’t a nominee. I have no clue how. Alas, I must choose from these options. I haven’t seen Maria, but of the other four, The Brutalist is clear. It may win just from the first scene alone with the statue of liberty. It’s truly breathtaking. And the rest of it is such high quality, too.

(Side note: How the F**K is Emilia Pérez nominated here)

Best Film Editing

Conclave (+140)

Anora (+150)

The Brutalist (+700)

Wicked (+1400)

Emilia Perez (+3500)

My pick: The Brutalist (+700)

Now this is an exciting category. It’s a toss up. They’re all great. I want to note: the odds are moving in favor of Conclave and in the wrong direction for The Brutalist. However, I think that’s good for playing the books. I think any of the top three could take it with reasonable probability — why not take the +700 choice if that’s the case?

Best Original Score

The Brutalist (-400)

The Wild Robot (+400)

Conclave (+800)

Emilia Perez (+1600)

Wicked (+3500)

My pick: The Brutalist (-400)

The score in The Brutalist is amazing and I would consider it an upset if it lost. Enough said.

Best Sound

Dune Part Two (-400)

A Complete Unknown (+350)

Wicked (+600)

The Wild Robot (+5000)

Emilia Perez (+5000)

My pick: Dune Part Two (-400)

Dune Part Two is my clear choice for sound this year. I thought it was excellent, and frankly I think the film should be in consideration for a lot more categories than it’s getting credit for. This one, though, should be a piece of hardware it takes home.

Best Original Song

El Mal (Emilia Perez) (-310)

The Journey (The Six Triple Eight) (+500)

Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late) (+800)

Mi Camino (Emilia Perez) (+800)

Like a Bird (Sing Sing) (+2000)

My pick: El Mal (-310)

I don’t like this category. I’m just following the awards season indication. If Emilia Pérez could get negative awards, I would vouch for that. Unfortunately, it seems primed to win a few — this one included.

Best Visual Effects

Dune Part Two (-800)

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (+400)

Wicked (+2000)

Better Man (+2500)

Alien: Romulus (+3500)

My pick: Dune Part Two (-800)

Sand worm.

Best Production Design

Wicked (-400)

Nosferatu (+500)

The Brutalist (+800)

Conclave (+900)

Dune Part 2 (+3500)

My pick: Nosferatu (+500)

Wicked was impressive. I believe it is a compelling front-runner in this category, but Nosferatu at +500 is too tasty to ignore. I don’t hate The Brutalist here, either.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The Substance (-1400)

Wicked (+600)

Nosferatu (+1400)

Emilia Perez (+2800)

A Different Man (+3500)

My pick: The Substance (-1400)

I mean… why would you go against it?

Best Costume Design

Wicked (-2000)

Conclave (+800)

Nosferatu (+1400)

A Complete Unknown (+2500)

Gladiator II (+3500)

My pick: Wicked (-2000)

This pick is gonna be popular. It’s already popular.

Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short, and Best Live-Action Short

I don’t know. These are always hard to predict and my recommendation is to not bet them.

Summary:

Big Six Picks

Best Picture: Anora (-200)

Best Director: Sean Baker (Anora) (-175)

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (+150)

Best Actress: Fernanda Torres (+1100)

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (-3500)

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña (-2500)

Plus-Odds Picks